Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
